Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4d51387f67af6d344622e1795e8a4a0acb60dbdc052fd8e64d2d6af5dba2581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 2c | 11,109$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.15 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 25c | 7,557$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.17 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 68c | 6,053$4,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.92 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 32c | 4,148$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.84 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 27c | 3,843$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 2,041$1,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.79 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 75c | 2,001$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.13 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 26c | 635$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.1 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…fb95backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Yes | 4c | 399.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 53c | 347.29$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.72 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 6c | 321.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 283.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 259$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 17c | 250$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 24c | 208.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 44c | 196.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…3128backed Yes | 25c | 192$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…7830backed Yes | 26c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 34c | 149$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 59c | 116$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…9256backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 13c | 99.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4d4cbacked No | 75c | 95.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 74c | 80.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes | 18c | 78.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf121…6903backed Yes | 27c | 71.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7433…0b6fbacked Yes | 25c | 55.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…ed14backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 41cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 75c | 47.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 75c | 40.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b2…efa9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…b030backed Yes | 26c | 38.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 67c | 31.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ec…aa0fbacked No | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed No | 76c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 60c | 22.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed No | 75c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-25?this page
- Will SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.