Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Mideng Dreamer (BO1) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb89ff8e47000eb98e1d1d842449dcdb02e70175b0e69132f14a2871f80b5fcf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakult Brothersof Yakult Brothers, Mideng Dreamer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Yakult Brothers | 76c | 543.49$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mideng Dreamer | 15c | 493.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Mideng Dreamer | 27c | 461.57$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 223 | 63.2%141 W · 82 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yakult Brothers | 73c | 445.13$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.19 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…f3c6backed Yakult Brothers | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Mideng Dreamer | 30c | 428.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Mideng Dreamer | 39c | 419.8$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.87 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Yakult Brothers | 71c | 267.89$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Mideng Dreamer | 34c | 258.85$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Mideng Dreamer | 24c | 197.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Yakult Brothers | 64c | 178.67$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb278…3ba6backed Yakult Brothers | 65c | 153.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Mideng Dreamer | 33c | 140.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Mideng Dreamer | 31c | 133.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfe…5c6cbacked Mideng Dreamer | 24c | 129.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Mideng Dreamer | 29c | 126.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yakult Brothers | 74c | 123.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Mideng Dreamer | 24c | 121$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mideng Dreamer | 27c | 81.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…7b70backed Mideng Dreamer | 24c | 81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Yakult Brothers | 69c | 72.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Mideng Dreamer | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 180 | 42.8%77 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb647…1fdfbacked Yakult Brothers | 67c | 61.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Mideng Dreamer | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Mideng Dreamer | 35c | 43.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Yakult Brothers | 58c | 43.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0771…9d18backed Yakult Brothers | 70c | 36.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Yakult Brothers | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb6…e73cbacked Yakult Brothers | 75c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.