MLB · resolved market
Brewers vs. Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8aa90c9518e843ea1899c91e0fbab7aca8442fe16bc4eefefc84b998d263a2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brewersof Brewers, Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Brewers | 43c | 21,029$9,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,986.53 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Rays | 57c | 10,945$6,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,219.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Rays | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,700 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Brewers | 63c | 7,175$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,674.55 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Rays | 57c | 6,004$3,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,422.27 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rays | 41c | 4,023$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.28 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Rays | 57c | 4,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.94 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Rays | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.99 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rays | 34c | 2,375$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.49 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Brewers | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.58 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Brewers | 43c | 1,700$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Rays | 36c | 1,368$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.77 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Brewers | 37c | 1,352$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.48 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Brewers | 42c | 1,321$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.13 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Brewers | 42c | 1,279$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.94 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Brewers | 45c | 1,222$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.22 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rays | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Rays | 57c | 999.99$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.94 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rays | 57c | 996$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.72 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Brewers | 43c | 347.06$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.82 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Rays | 35c | 304.27$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Brewers | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Brewers | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Brewers | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Brewers | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Rays | 35c | 165$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Brewers | 43c | 164.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.63 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3def…08b4backed Brewers | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Brewers | 65c | 149.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Rays | 57c | 134.14$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Rays | 59c | 117.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ce…814abacked Rays | 69c | 109.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Brewers | 59c | 77.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Rays | 33c | 75.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Rays | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Brewers | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Rays | 42c | 52.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rays | 38c | 52.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Rays | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Rays | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…3d66backed Brewers | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Brewers | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Rays | 48c | 43.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Rays | 52c | 40.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Brewers | 45c | 33.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Rays | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Rays | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…f2f4backed Brewers | 67c | 29.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…1a90backed Rays | 56c | 20.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Rays | 56c | 17.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Brewers | 65c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.