Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8c8ed500f9c9b3ead39821155029d9efa437590839ac8b2a783c44593e579af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 3c | 2,263$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 11c | 373.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…b3ffbacked Yes | 22c | 268.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 19c | 265.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 80c | 232.46$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 190.39$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 11c | 177.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 157.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 14c | 156.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 120.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 67c | 115.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 109.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 12c | 92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 15c | 92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 79.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 16c | 70.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 67.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 74c | 61.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 24c | 58.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb073…54fbbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…8f23backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0ce8backed Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 76c | 38.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 38.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6671…e109backed No | 76c | 33.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 31.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 75c | 30.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 28.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 25.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 18.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 75c | 13.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.