TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,142
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,142 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7735…4740backed Yes48c351.17$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17025933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes65c314.38$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.963,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd231…633cbacked No54c289.17$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.02771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c241.29$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff3…aa8dbacked Yes47c227.53$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.791181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x177a…b3ffbacked Yes42c219.84$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.261729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c208.7$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.525,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Yes52c193.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes80c187.81$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506955.1%38 W · 31 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes48c144.73$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes46c144.51$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6714646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc520…63e6backed Yes45c107.13$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae79…5322backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4512934.1%44 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes50c99.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7571031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No51c97.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.817,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No25c97.05$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.064,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes41c96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.921,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No32c84.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed No47c80.21$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.515648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes49c73.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.662,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4c2…5c65backed No55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.731291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick65cpaid+40.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No59c66.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.941,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No49c61.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.331,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No61c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.655,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1440…7712backed Yes45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279035.6%32 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x080a…0307backed No50c59.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.991770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbaf…61a7backed No49c57.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.23683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+48%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes37c55.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.885,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No45c49.73$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3549646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8ce…7b28backed Yes52c49.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.741145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98e1…61babacked Yes53c48.4$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.651181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+45.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c47.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1880050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes43c46.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes45c44.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9913839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes30c43.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.072,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a8…2139backed Yes52c40.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes76c39.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.720662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes49c39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2652828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a0c…4e61backed No49c38.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.851361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705c…34e2backed Yes47c37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No49c35.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0388650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No32c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.712,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No35c32.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2986847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes46c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7212832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes51c31.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11d0…69c9backed Yes48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.343663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes80c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9412544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0970…7889backed Yes45c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…0988backed No51c29.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.296456.3%36 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes75c26.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.111,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes45c25.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.634853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4d…50b1backed No55c25.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5912972.1%93 W · 36 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No43c25.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.572,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes47c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes55c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8544536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c24.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2af3…bcb4backed No55c21.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.684658.7%27 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c5…674ebacked No49c20.57$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.49425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-49%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3671…e543backed No50c20.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.48366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec0a…71dabacked Yes69c19.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5611343.4%49 W · 64 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50a9…dcf5backed No55c19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.576556.9%37 W · 28 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No55c18.34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2566944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1bb…42b1backed Yes77c16.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9016…3cecbacked Yes67c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.643482.4%28 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f86…0b92backed No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.451936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.