Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4116e134e43fb31d2f09ab3456598ffc04d9a78d4af2ad0162b7671bdbaacea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 48c | 351.17$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 314.38$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd231…633cbacked No | 54c | 289.17$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 241.29$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…aa8dbacked Yes | 47c | 227.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.79 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…b3ffbacked Yes | 42c | 219.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 208.7$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 52c | 193.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 80c | 187.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 144.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 46c | 144.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc520…63e6backed Yes | 45c | 107.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 50c | 99.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 97.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 97.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 41c | 96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 32c | 84.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed No | 47c | 80.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 73.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…5c65backed No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 66.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 61.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…0307backed No | 50c | 59.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaf…61a7backed No | 49c | 57.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 55.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 49.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…7b28backed Yes | 52c | 49.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…61babacked Yes | 53c | 48.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 47.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 43c | 46.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 45c | 44.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 43.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a8…2139backed Yes | 52c | 40.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 76c | 39.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…4e61backed No | 49c | 38.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705c…34e2backed Yes | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 49c | 35.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 35c | 32.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 51c | 31.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…7889backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 51c | 29.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 26.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 45c | 25.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 55c | 25.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 25.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 24.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 55c | 21.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…674ebacked No | 49c | 20.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3671…e543backed No | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 69c | 19.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…42b1backed Yes | 77c | 16.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…3cecbacked Yes | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f86…0b92backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.