Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8cd7bdff2b2fdef5cf3e976c30fb63d3d100dc0bf82d3f8d37745c637ae126a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,960$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 5c | 1,483$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…f8bfbacked Yes | 21c | 511.01$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 33c | 493.84$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.76 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 314.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 32c | 222$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 9c | 216.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 15c | 164.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 31c | 164.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 135.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 126.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 53c | 113$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 56c | 100.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 46c | 84.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 60.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 77c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 46c | 59.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 48.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…91dabacked Yes | 23c | 46.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 39.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 59c | 25.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 18.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 14.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 13.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C or higher on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.