Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x026649514d65a933e0cd4852ed468ea739bee01586b9691ad4aa72cf69a69b7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 34c | 593.5$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…5cd7backed No | 71c | 563.5$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…f8bfbacked Yes | 40c | 451.7$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 60c | 275.5$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 234.86$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 220.37$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 188.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 171$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 7c | 162.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 147.25$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 38c | 113.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 18c | 108.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 95.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 39c | 92.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 89.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 41c | 81.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 40c | 81.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…0124backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 36c | 70.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 69.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 40c | 68.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 61c | 67.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 41c | 61.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 39c | 59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…3e5fbacked Yes | 40c | 57.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 38c | 56.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 62c | 53.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 43c | 50.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 47.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…3ff9backed No | 60c | 47.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…13f1backed Yes | 41c | 46.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…a7bebacked No | 60c | 43.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 42.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 41.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 40.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 61c | 39.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 44c | 39.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…d361backed Yes | 40c | 36.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 57c | 34.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 31.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 43c | 28.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 26.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 25.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 59c | 25.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00e…43b5backed No | 60c | 24.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 41c | 24.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 23.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 23.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 20.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 19.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 17.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C or higher on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.