Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8ce5ec1c08cdcf1c4165efcdee06f94686a373bd6a6e8d633ccdfbd0108569d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 26c | 554.96$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.3 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 80c | 408.08$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 19c | 257.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 147.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 14c | 107.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 41c | 97.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 80c | 94.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 22c | 89.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 88.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 29c | 87.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 18c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 73.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 68.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 68.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 67.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 40c | 65.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 62.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…2f0fbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 49.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 24c | 48.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 23c | 47.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 37.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 70c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 28.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 59c | 28.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 59c | 28.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 22.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 73c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 17.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…cbdabacked No | 71c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.