Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ae0d1cd828483c7a72e30aeb2df3622ba8a63ade290ff57d9ca19188854ca24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 499.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 22c | 113.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 85.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 24c | 84.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 78.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 28c | 77.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 20c | 75.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 76c | 74.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 69.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 30c | 64.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 58.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…f872backed Yes | 29c | 57.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 23c | 54.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 50.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 49.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 49.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 75c | 47.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x670a…d198backed Yes | 28c | 44.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked No | 77c | 44.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 41.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 72c | 33.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 80c | 30.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 69c | 27.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 79c | 20.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 74c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 71c | 14.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.