Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe8f903668dce47c28a4c86b0183b206afb17dda77c2222c2486fc771b90b2c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 34c | 329.23$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.11 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 73c | 131.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 62c | 121.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 38c | 121$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 120.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 29c | 117.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 70c | 105.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 31c | 84.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 61c | 83.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 80.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 80.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 33c | 77.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 29c | 67.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 67.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 66.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 28c | 58.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 58.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…f872backed Yes | 39c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 51.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 51.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 67c | 48.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 28c | 48.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 47.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 64c | 46.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 42c | 42.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 61c | 42.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 47c | 40.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…cbdabacked Yes | 67c | 37.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 73c | 34.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x670a…d198backed Yes | 39c | 34.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…2f0fbacked Yes | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 44c | 33.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 67c | 33.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 47c | 32.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 30.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 23.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 47c | 23.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 22.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 18.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.