TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,114

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,674 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks69c2,998$2,064 inWon+$933.812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants31c2,377$735 inLost-$735.332,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants33c589.58$194 inLost-$194.468,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Arizona Diamondbacks71c223.88$159 inWon+$64.6857548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants34c140$48 inLost-$47.66,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks71c123.08$88 inWon+$35.1210343.7%45 W · 58 L-9.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed San Francisco Giants35c100.06$35 inLost-$35.021,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3afb…0004backed San Francisco Giants35c66.71$23 inLost-$23.3510650%53 W · 53 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks65c59.83$39 inWon+$21.018,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3b…9ed5backed San Francisco Giants35c53.37$19 inLost-$18.686456.3%36 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks53c40$21 inWon+$18.85,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x011c…f943backed San Francisco Giants41c33.17$14 inLost-$13.61942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks66c27.94$19 inWon+$9.369,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Arizona Diamondbacks70c22.87$16 inWon+$6.7744648.7%217 W · 229 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc1…b855backed Arizona Diamondbacks70c20.19$14 inWon+$6.143548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Arizona Diamondbacks64c19.64$13 inWon+$7.0758054.5%316 W · 264 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Arizona Diamondbacks68c19.01$13 inWon+$6.1569447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks72c14.92$11 inWon+$4.2332550.5%164 W · 161 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.