TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,276 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9703…69c2backed Under53c3,355$1,780 inLost-$1,779.993,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x994b…c047backed Over47c3,350$1,575 inWon+$1,775.54257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under17c988.84$169 inLost-$169.448,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Under55c909.09$500 inLost-$50039047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Over47c629.62$296 inWon+$333.78648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under53c600$318 inLost-$3186,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over45c400$180 inWon+$2201,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Over46c387.03$178 inWon+$20986548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over69c242.42$168 inWon+$74.5612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Over46c220$101 inWon+$118.811550.4%58 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over47c208.55$98 inWon+$110.534,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under29c100.38$29 inLost-$29.1533032.7%108 W · 222 L-22.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4dea…5e23backed Under56c93$52 inLost-$52.0342550.1%213 W · 212 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over44c88$39 inWon+$49.2849450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under54c65$35 inLost-$35.172247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under41c60$25 inLost-$24.699624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over59c60$35 inWon+$24.65,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under28c50$14 inLost-$141,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under42c43.1$18 inLost-$18.11,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under27c38.93$11 inLost-$10.512,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over46c38.52$18 inWon+$20.82,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over55c27.1$15 inWon+$12.068,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Under55c22.18$12 inLost-$12.270455%387 W · 317 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05b7…c24abacked Under54c22.03$12 inLost-$11.928043.2%121 W · 159 L-23.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under54c20$11 inLost-$10.81,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.