Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Florida State Seminoles vs. Dayton Flyers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8d324a7109b6ea032e3b7e1bb978beb2fa4bea5e36006705e7dd965c21bf8bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dayton Flyersof Florida State Seminoles, Dayton Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Florida State Seminoles | 16c | 2,806$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.14 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 1,771$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.4 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 799.55$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.8 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Dayton Flyers | 74c | 722.25$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.8 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 698$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282d…f0c8backed Dayton Flyers | 74c | 605$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Florida State Seminoles | 28c | 552$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Dayton Flyers | 79c | 540.46$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.69 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 484$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 400.19$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 163 | 41.7%68 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Florida State Seminoles | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 294 | 44.6%131 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…19bebacked Dayton Flyers | 74c | 390$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…24d7backed Florida State Seminoles | 23c | 383.53$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Florida State Seminoles | 24c | 328$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Dayton Flyers | 72c | 282$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Dayton Flyers | 71c | 256.05$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Dayton Flyers | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Dayton Flyers | 74c | 244.94$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Dayton Flyers | 71c | 224$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Dayton Flyers | 73c | 222$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Dayton Flyers | 79c | 210.07$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Dayton Flyers | 71c | 168$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Dayton Flyers | 72c | 158.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dayton Flyers | 71c | 151.55$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dba…c816backed Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 146.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Florida State Seminoles | 22c | 144.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Dayton Flyers | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 254 | 38.2%97 W · 157 L | -14.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Dayton Flyers | 75c | 93.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 98 | 71.4%70 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Florida State Seminoles | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Dayton Flyers | 78c | 82.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Florida State Seminoles | 25c | 77.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Dayton Flyers | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Florida State Seminoles | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Florida State Seminoles | 28c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Dayton Flyers | 74c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Florida State Seminoles | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Dayton Flyers | 80c | 70.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…7602backed Dayton Flyers | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Dayton Flyers | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5920…3ed2backed Dayton Flyers | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Dayton Flyers | 71c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Dayton Flyers | 71c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Florida State Seminoles | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Florida State Seminoles | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Florida State Seminoles | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Florida State Seminoles | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Florida State Seminoles | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Florida State Seminoles | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Florida State Seminoles | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…e655backed Dayton Flyers | 73c | 42.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac05…a255backed Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 42.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Florida State Seminoles | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Dayton Flyers | 77c | 40.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e13…8bfebacked Florida State Seminoles | 28c | 37.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Florida State Seminoles | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…f46abacked Dayton Flyers | 73c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.