CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8e8c7e1cf5e02406bd0dda95aa63c7354f29e88e8163a95b69b2074daa3e8f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MANA eSportsof CHAOS, MANA eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…2267backed CHAOS | 11c | 1,199$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.9 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked CHAOS | 16c | 898$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.68 | 349 | 43%150 W · 199 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…4197backed CHAOS | 18c | 820$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.35 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked CHAOS | 11c | 785.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 161 | 46%74 W · 87 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed CHAOS | 12c | 758$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed CHAOS | 13c | 588.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed CHAOS | 13c | 322$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked CHAOS | 22c | 320.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…182abacked CHAOS | 4c | 263.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed CHAOS | 8c | 242.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…f3cebacked CHAOS | 15c | 230$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked CHAOS | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…09b7backed CHAOS | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed CHAOS | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group DMANA eSports won
- Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports - Map 1 WinnerMANA eSports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.