CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bd49deaa4714b21079c0dd6c9d170023b98a12aefc39d34615cb5dd7fac4a9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MANA eSportsof CHAOS, MANA eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked MANA eSports | 70c | 4,444$3,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.48 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…bb64backed MANA eSports | 60c | 4,264$2,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.11 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked CHAOS | 50c | 1,835$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.24 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MANA eSports | 67c | 1,432$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.64 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…5bcfbacked CHAOS | 29c | 1,361$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.93 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed MANA eSports | 57c | 1,162$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.08 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked CHAOS | 37c | 1,116$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.55 | 277 | 53.8%149 W · 128 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed CHAOS | 40c | 1,050$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.5 | 576 | 41.5%239 W · 337 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed CHAOS | 4c | 889$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed MANA eSports | 67c | 869.11$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.24 | 454 | 65.9%299 W · 155 L | +20.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked CHAOS | 16c | 701.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…a4cebacked CHAOS | 31c | 581.79$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.51 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked CHAOS | 4c | 537.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 161 | 46%74 W · 87 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked CHAOS | 28c | 507.08$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.98 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked CHAOS | 29c | 478$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.11 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…4197backed CHAOS | 27c | 475.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed CHAOS | 21c | 410.39$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed CHAOS | 27c | 388.01$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…3018backed CHAOS | 36c | 350$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked CHAOS | 14c | 347$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 314 | 51.6%162 W · 152 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…86e7backed MANA eSports | 61c | 345.26$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.29 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked MANA eSports | 76c | 330.38$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed CHAOS | 29c | 305$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked CHAOS | 48c | 295.06$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…09b7backed CHAOS | 22c | 282.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed CHAOS | 41c | 265.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…6df9backed CHAOS | 37c | 257.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 162 | 45.7%74 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked CHAOS | 47c | 243$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed CHAOS | 28c | 242.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…f2a3backed CHAOS | 39c | 242$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed CHAOS | 49c | 237.23$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…f3cebacked CHAOS | 32c | 230.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcae…2397backed MANA eSports | 62c | 219.04$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…cf4cbacked MANA eSports | 72c | 213.95$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.22 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed MANA eSports | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…09e3backed CHAOS | 49c | 203.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…56e3backed CHAOS | 47c | 202.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 247 | 46.2%114 W · 133 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…e9acbacked CHAOS | 28c | 202.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed CHAOS | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 404 | 49.8%201 W · 203 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed MANA eSports | 69c | 174.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked CHAOS | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x206c…2b8dbacked CHAOS | 45c | 158.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed MANA eSports | 49c | 155.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 406 | 39.4%160 W · 246 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked CHAOS | 50c | 155.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked CHAOS | 29c | 148.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed CHAOS | 29c | 148.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…211bbacked CHAOS | 32c | 147.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…9ef7backed CHAOS | 30c | 127.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…61bebacked CHAOS | 9c | 111.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked CHAOS | 29c | 110.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked CHAOS | 47c | 106.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed MANA eSports | 53c | 93.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked CHAOS | 31c | 90.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9558…9579backed MANA eSports | 71c | 86.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed CHAOS | 35c | 76.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 328 | 44.8%147 W · 181 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed MANA eSports | 75c | 73.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked MANA eSports | 73c | 68.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 446 | 75.3%336 W · 110 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed CHAOS | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed MANA eSports | 50c | 60.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed CHAOS | 36c | 53.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 248 | 40.7%101 W · 147 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed CHAOS | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 182 | 33%60 W · 122 L | -22.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd652…6354backed CHAOS | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 137 | 57.7%79 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed CHAOS | 27c | 49.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -9.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5690…7a58backed CHAOS | 27c | 47.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x171b…9c6fbacked MANA eSports | 60c | 45.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed CHAOS | 28c | 43.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 200 | 67%134 W · 66 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked MANA eSports | 49c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…1e43backed CHAOS | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d2…74f2backed CHAOS | 51c | 35.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked MANA eSports | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed MANA eSports | 64c | 33.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed CHAOS | 35c | 29.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 399 | 46.4%185 W · 214 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed CHAOS | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 170 | 38.8%66 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked CHAOS | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 288 | 56.6%163 W · 125 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…862dbacked MANA eSports | 70c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…988bbacked MANA eSports | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group Dthis page
- Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports - Map 1 WinnerMANA eSports won
- Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports - Map 2 WinnerMANA eSports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.