Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8f7e8828bd106bc24d72042ba1e5e88fecea226cea820d8423e63645532f554
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof 1win, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked AVULUS | 45c | 11,008$4,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,997.54 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 54c | 5,996$3,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,743.5 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS | 1c | 3,802$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed AVULUS | 47c | 1,498$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.8 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…cbe2backed 1win | 54c | 1,496$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed 1win | 54c | 1,093$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.98 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8aa4backed AVULUS | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed 1win | 63c | 957.6$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.6 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed AVULUS | 43c | 694.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed 1win | 54c | 586.47$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.65 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked 1win | 57c | 556$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.08 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked 1win | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…7706backed 1win | 57c | 543.49$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.7 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1win | 54c | 442.42$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.51 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4605…5299backed AVULUS | 26c | 418.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked 1win | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…a75bbacked AVULUS | 46c | 264.69$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e13…391fbacked 1win | 54c | 263.06$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.01 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed 1win | 77c | 230$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed AVULUS | 33c | 182.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked AVULUS | 35c | 115.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 54c | 111.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked 1win | 65c | 85.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…d30fbacked 1win | 57c | 82.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked 1win | 55c | 57.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…0041backed AVULUS | 42c | 52.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed 1win | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked 1win | 61c | 32.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed 1win | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked 1win | 67c | 19.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsAVULUS won
- Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.