Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7307b4a2fd759e2380affffcb9e6cf970bf83874a8e508d2ef2437d4f1c94890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof 1win, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked 1win | 47c | 10,906$5,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,104 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed 1win | 0c | 7,391$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed AVULUS | 54c | 6,246$3,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,885.37 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 52c | 3,316$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.58 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed AVULUS | 72c | 712.21$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.96 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed AVULUS | 72c | 666$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed 1win | 53c | 569.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed AVULUS | 74c | 533.78$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.22 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed AVULUS | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked AVULUS | 39c | 434.72$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.27 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked AVULUS | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…7706backed AVULUS | 36c | 311.29$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.12 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed 1win | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed 1win | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed 1win | 63c | 160$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4605…5299backed AVULUS | 35c | 143.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.71 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed AVULUS | 54c | 125$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…a75bbacked 1win | 43c | 121.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…3191backed 1win | 66c | 100.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed 1win | 47c | 96.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2d…77b4backed AVULUS | 51c | 94.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed 1win | 63c | 61.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed AVULUS | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed 1win | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed 1win | 40c | 49.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed AVULUS | 50c | 49.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…dc1fbacked 1win | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked 1win | 48c | 44.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AVULUS | 51c | 41.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed AVULUS | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 1win | 34c | 30.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked AVULUS | 52c | 25.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked 1win | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 306 | 43.5%133 W · 173 L | -22.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsAVULUS won
- Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.