CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb923b89fdb99222dcbc8a14f7aac47ece8e790ecfd507bebb8750e24b218e06f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FOKUSof FOKUS, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Ursa | 36c | 1,831$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.47 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked FOKUS | 54c | 973.33$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.73 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed FOKUS | 77c | 321.94$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked FOKUS | 70c | 311.41$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.58 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd525…1815backed FOKUS | 49c | 308.97$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.57 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ursa | 41c | 207.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa | 39c | 204.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed FOKUS | 60c | 190.48$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 25c | 178$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked FOKUS | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…8981backed Ursa | 22c | 115.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed FOKUS | 78c | 102.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed FOKUS | 60c | 96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Ursa | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed FOKUS | 77c | 75.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 339 | 49%166 W · 173 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Ursa | 32c | 72.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb30e…5ecebacked FOKUS | 60c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Ursa | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…107abacked Ursa | 48c | 58.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e55cbacked FOKUS | 48c | 57.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Ursa | 47c | 56.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked FOKUS | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked FOKUS | 55c | 50.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked FOKUS | 49c | 46.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…7a55backed FOKUS | 54c | 46.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Ursa | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Ursa | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 489 | 43.6%213 W · 276 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked FOKUS | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ursa | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked FOKUS | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed FOKUS | 56c | 31.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FOKUS | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed FOKUS | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…bcdebacked FOKUS | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…355fbacked FOKUS | 79c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e11…ccbcbacked FOKUS | 79c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +94%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 PlayoffsFOKUS won
- Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerFOKUS won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5)FOKUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.