CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67eca4afd86ecc0dcd91dc0dba1725015c3ede906d2922903ee59dc65c161b9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FOKUSof FOKUS, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Ursa | 63c | 1,120$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.66 | 668 | 51.8%346 W · 322 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa | 65c | 928.52$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.74 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked FOKUS | 37c | 900$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.2 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +22.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed FOKUS | 35c | 899.99$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.99 | 499 | 35.1%175 W · 324 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked FOKUS | 35c | 573.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.94 | 341 | 40.8%139 W · 202 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ursa | 65c | 572.96$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.22 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…2ae7backed FOKUS | 36c | 285.6$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.51 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Ursa | 66c | 275.21$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.64 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed FOKUS | 39c | 240$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…6afdbacked FOKUS | 35c | 193.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.68 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked FOKUS | 40c | 118.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed FOKUS | 37c | 108.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Ursa | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 445 | 52.4%233 W · 212 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…1f6fbacked Ursa | 62c | 69.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 263 | 41.1%108 W · 155 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed FOKUS | 38c | 61.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Ursa | 67c | 50.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 746 | 53.5%399 W · 347 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Ursa | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed FOKUS | 36c | 37.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed FOKUS | 37c | 29.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 205 | 56.6%116 W · 89 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Ursa | 65c | 26.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 500 | 56.6%283 W · 217 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 PlayoffsFOKUS won
- Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerFOKUS won
- Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerFOKUS won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.