Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb92532f969a876e33552e60b570c665f02d21814479b41e560b51260b5c5feb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 686.96$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.05 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.33 | 1,868 | 37.7%705 W · 1,163 L | +282.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 512 | 3.3%17 W · 495 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 37c | 220.88$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 615 | 21.1%130 W · 485 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 69c | 144.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 447 | 66.9%299 W · 148 L | +39.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 124.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 455 | 30.1%137 W · 318 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 46c | 98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 89.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,804 | 55.9%1,009 W · 795 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 71.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…1ddfbacked No | 54c | 66.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 61.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,186 | 50.8%603 W · 583 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 58.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 56.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 55.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 51c | 55.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -38.0wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 321 | 68.2%219 W · 102 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 47c | 47.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1,617 | 52.1%843 W · 774 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 64c | 46.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 444 | 58.8%261 W · 183 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 658 | 38.8%255 W · 403 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 46c | 44.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 453 | 46.4%210 W · 243 L | -20.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 80c | 38.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30af…2c34backed Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 60c | 20.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…4a9dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…7c1abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…d394backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…90acbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…5f93backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…4ea8backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a68…1e7abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6118…d31dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…1b11backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…1d24backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…bcfdbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9293…8f2ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…3c0fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…0412backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…693bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…a18ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…13e1backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…9feabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…a4e6backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236e…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2f…b741backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.