South American Leagues · resolved market
Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb961a5693b6d73b7cddaf919865954faf5adc9aa40030b400c944407848d3f09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 3c | 510.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +11.9wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 46c | 330$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 198.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Yes | 49c | 178.33$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked No | 48c | 156$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 47c | 143.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked No | 48c | 141$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes | 53c | 123.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed No | 48c | 86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked No | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Yes | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…2138backed Yes | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.