South American Leagues · resolved market
Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d8bafb56ba489785be7704476fd8afd3c712b6d3e493b255e135243890e1e20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 44c | 50,544$22,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,450.54 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 56c | 27,333$15,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,354.17 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 11,996$6,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,749.31 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 56c | 6,000$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,360 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 3,611$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.65 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked Under | 60c | 1,211$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 67cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 56c | 975$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 44c | 678.73$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.09 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 56c | 404.97$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.33 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…e339backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 200.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.21 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…bc59backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 43c | 115.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Over | 44c | 107$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Over | 44c | 103$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x957c…2965backed Over | 45c | 55.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Over | 44c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd520…09a1backed Over | 46c | 29.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Under | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Under | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Under | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Under | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Under | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Under | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 20.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.