Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Kalmychata (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb96ee6f220f89570df90694f80f7abe68d48196639baefd51952074e00c5374c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalmychataof Most Wanted, Kalmychata
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Most Wanted | 0c | 7,355$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…040abacked Most Wanted | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Most Wanted | 29c | 875.03$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.99 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Kalmychata | 55c | 531.02$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.13 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Most Wanted | 23c | 369$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Most Wanted | 13c | 291.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Kalmychata | 58c | 286.68$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Most Wanted | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2df…94b9backed Most Wanted | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Most Wanted | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Most Wanted | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Most Wanted | 52c | 192.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Most Wanted | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee8…6c2ebacked Kalmychata | 59c | 140.03$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Kalmychata | 47c | 110.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed Kalmychata | 50c | 100.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed Most Wanted | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Most Wanted | 43c | 88.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Most Wanted | 33c | 73.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Most Wanted | 45c | 29.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Kalmychata (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Kalmychata - Game 1 WinnerKalmychata won
- Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Kalmychata - Game 2 WinnerKalmychata won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.