MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9741bdb1db6a4fe359f812e1e3f85c2fc8ba2a831fd664c91e32888cf9a16d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 300.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 68c | 294.92$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…dc0bbacked Under | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 286.36$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.95 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 41c | 286.36$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.95 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 32c | 160.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 31c | 129.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 74c | 122$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 82.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 29c | 82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Under | 33c | 79.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 50c | 75.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 65c | 75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 35c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 62c | 61.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 65c | 47.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 26c | 41.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Over | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 27.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 60c | 23.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.