MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccfb2076cf8361032475f8c2d8f3068a7d12dc6c735f2739fb5336169c3184b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 25c | 18,275$4,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,568.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 10,160$3,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,572.95 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 4,622$2,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,403.2 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 3,900$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…401fbacked Atlanta Braves | 11c | 2,727$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 2,300$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 1,255$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.59 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 990$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Atlanta Braves | 25c | 539.97$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.42 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 530.49$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.37 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 397.07$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 17c | 345.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.08 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 340$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Atlanta Braves | 11c | 198.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 133.87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Atlanta Braves | 49c | 116.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Atlanta Braves | 53c | 110.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Atlanta Braves | 27c | 99.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 84.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…f00dbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 79.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 56.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked San Diego Padres | 72c | 54.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 48.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 19.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.