MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x423d479febbd9af86e65727500348ee920c94c948e0a0df6dcedc84791d9aa31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $210,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 52c | 102,371$53,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,921.14 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 66c | 62,915$41,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,745.71 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Under | 48c | 15,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 7,309$5,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,437.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 6,046$3,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,327.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 53c | 3,770$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.9 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 34c | 3,763$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.23 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…c709backed Under | 48c | 3,562$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.94 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 2,189$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 2,029$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 52c | 1,905$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.18 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 34c | 1,556$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.9 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Under | 73c | 1,391$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.47 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 16c | 1,375$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.49 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 52c | 1,300$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 1,268$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…fcd1backed Under | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 48c | 1,048$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.62 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 48c | 1,024$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.52 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 62c | 990.24$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.29 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 48c | 652.97$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.63 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 48c | 642.87$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.58 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 600$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 48c | 599.53$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.78 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 48c | 587.85$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.17 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 48c | 587.08$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.78 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 421$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.23 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 55c | 344$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.6 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 34c | 302.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 34c | 295.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 229$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 76c | 223.74$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.06 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 48c | 208.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 47c | 199$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.53 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…dab4backed Under | 66c | 180.06$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 48c | 154.2$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 48c | 149.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Over | 53c | 145.28$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 139.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 37c | 134.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Under | 77c | 130.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Over | 33c | 93.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 65c | 85.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…6eb7backed Under | 65c | 83.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 28c | 72.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 65c | 67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked Over | 53c | 66.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a1…296fbacked Over | 53c | 56.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab5…95fabacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 54c | 43.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…0de6backed Under | 60c | 43.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 63c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 28c | 38.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 51c | 36.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…08bcbacked Over | 37c | 36.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Under | 56c | 35.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 35.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 50c | 33.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 71c | 32.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 48c | 30.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc051…5fc3backed Under | 48c | 29.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.