Tennis · resolved market
Qatar Total Open: Xinyu Wang vs Emiliana Arango
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9861637ad94e9c806bbd6ba5d738c6e6f2316a3caea7f3f2c8863a389c125f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wangof Wang, Arango
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a0a…24a9backed Arango | 12c | 27,975$3,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,241.11 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Arango | 1c | 4,965$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Arango | 14c | 2,860$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.35 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arango | 10c | 1,612$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.01 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…59ddbacked Arango | 10c | 1,232$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 244 | 38.9%95 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Arango | 17c | 811.89$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1,277 | 56.6%723 W · 554 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Arango | 17c | 787.65$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.9 | 765 | 46.8%358 W · 407 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Arango | 14c | 570.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Arango | 16c | 425.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Arango | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arango | 6c | 216.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Arango | 11c | 182.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 13.5%20 W · 128 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd956…4ea0backed Arango | 16c | 126.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +329.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Arango | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Arango | 19c | 118.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…7ad1backed Arango | 16c | 99.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4d…6c2ebacked Arango | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…c062backed Arango | 15c | 93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa531…fab4backed Arango | 14c | 91.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Arango | 17c | 85.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b41…9af2backed Arango | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf0…6105backed Arango | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa1…1a1fbacked Arango | 17c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c99…5194backed Arango | 19c | 83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Arango | 15c | 82.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff07…3822backed Arango | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…d6fabacked Arango | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Arango | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…041cbacked Arango | 19c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qatar Total Open: Xinyu Wang vs Emiliana Arangothis page
- Set 1 Winner: Wang vs ArangoWang won
- Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Arango (+1.5)Wang won
- Wang vs. Arango: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Wang vs. Arango: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.