Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb990202c6f4fdee59bf93473620ba63cff8642ba7b5f383f0ec800c8c5f28685
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 6c | 453.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.39 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 5c | 319$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.28 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…d422backed No | 23c | 304.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 299.52$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.94 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 28c | 196.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…e3f2backed Yes | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 19c | 175.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de4…9f53backed Yes | 13c | 174$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.2 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 75c | 172.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.52 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 26c | 163.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.27 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 72c | 158.36$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 79c | 104$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0f80backed Yes | 20c | 101.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.89 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 75c | 100.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 86.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 15c | 81.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed Yes | 75c | 68.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 71c | 63.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 55c | 59.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed Yes | 45c | 59.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 70c | 52.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 62c | 42.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 62c | 16.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.