Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb99d4d993cff4fc90d4223136059f5c39c408b41cf4145c587231e53b25f5546
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiN Gamingof OG, paiN Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,830 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed paiN Gaming | 38c | 3,239$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.14 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed OG | 74c | 2,077$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.32 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked OG | 72c | 2,000$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.5 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed OG | 64c | 1,768$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.14 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 64c | 1,480$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.99 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed OG | 57c | 1,170$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.67 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed OG | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed paiN Gaming | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.99 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed OG | 61c | 961.54$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.54 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed OG | 2c | 952$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked paiN Gaming | 39c | 907.69$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.69 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed OG | 45c | 901.86$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.56 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed OG | 75c | 873.88$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.7 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked paiN Gaming | 53c | 767.21$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.37 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked paiN Gaming | 57c | 701.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.75 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…2c75backed paiN Gaming | 25c | 647.12$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.12 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed paiN Gaming | 63c | 623.65$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.65 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c01…8c6cbacked paiN Gaming | 57c | 533.45$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.45 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed OG | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.8 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked OG | 5c | 488$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed paiN Gaming | 52c | 476.21$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.21 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…c72abacked paiN Gaming | 44c | 408.87$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.08 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed paiN Gaming | 27c | 390.77$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.8 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed OG | 13c | 360.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…bbd7backed paiN Gaming | 36c | 347.22$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.22 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked paiN Gaming | 18c | 329.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.27 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked paiN Gaming | 27c | 288.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.36 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked OG | 32c | 235.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed paiN Gaming | 58c | 232.61$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed OG | 30c | 227.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed paiN Gaming | 73c | 205.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed OG | 63c | 159.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked OG | 40c | 129.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed paiN Gaming | 38c | 120.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed paiN Gaming | 45c | 110.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed OG | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed OG | 46c | 98.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed paiN Gaming | 36c | 96.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…2923backed OG | 53c | 95.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb68…c695backed paiN Gaming | 57c | 93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed OG | 47c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked OG | 63c | 84.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…7807backed paiN Gaming | 26c | 77.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…88d6backed paiN Gaming | 65c | 76.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 187 | 69%129 W · 58 L | +20.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed OG | 54c | 75.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb150…236dbacked paiN Gaming | 40c | 68.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed OG | 34c | 63.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed OG | 55c | 60.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf79f…5729backed OG | 62c | 57.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed paiN Gaming | 19c | 52.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed paiN Gaming | 28c | 50.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…b958backed paiN Gaming | 60c | 50.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed paiN Gaming | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed OG | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked OG | 68c | 49.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked paiN Gaming | 27c | 46.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked paiN Gaming | 31c | 44.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcadb…a190backed OG | 69c | 37.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked OG | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked OG | 41c | 36.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed OG | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed OG | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…4cc3backed paiN Gaming | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…60ccbacked paiN Gaming | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4303…4194backed OG | 48c | 24.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…daf0backed OG | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…ad9cbacked OG | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…c640backed OG | 66c | 17.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 WinnerOG won
- Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.