Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa056689bab17540ac99363e3475b7856f1d3ebc812d4d16c6b0a92e80844582b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof OG, paiN Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,115 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked paiN Gaming | 6c | 97,607$6,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,232.26 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed OG | 56c | 10,653$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,653.1 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed paiN Gaming | 42c | 4,716$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.81 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked paiN Gaming | 19c | 4,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed paiN Gaming | 48c | 2,847$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.12 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 67c | 2,648$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.25 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed OG | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed OG | 58c | 1,481$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.48 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed OG | 61c | 1,183$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.69 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed paiN Gaming | 15c | 1,172$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.02 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked paiN Gaming | 5c | 1,015$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked paiN Gaming | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed OG | 49c | 842.73$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.78 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed OG | 71c | 722.9$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.84 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…2c75backed paiN Gaming | 43c | 698.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed paiN Gaming | 20c | 642.52$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked OG | 79c | 637.69$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…84c1backed paiN Gaming | 41c | 609.75$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed paiN Gaming | 31c | 596.56$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.07 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked OG | 64c | 547.87$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.81 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed paiN Gaming | 43c | 532.96$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked paiN Gaming | 23c | 484.75$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.12 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed paiN Gaming | 8c | 431.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed paiN Gaming | 42c | 397.61$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.96 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…b46abacked paiN Gaming | 26c | 380$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed paiN Gaming | 39c | 331.78$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.39 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…bbd7backed OG | 52c | 289.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.54 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed paiN Gaming | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…c72abacked paiN Gaming | 44c | 254.05$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed OG | 62c | 240.88$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed OG | 69c | 230$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked OG | 66c | 215.55$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked OG | 64c | 186.08$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed paiN Gaming | 33c | 172.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked OG | 78c | 171.18$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c4…09a3backed OG | 34c | 147.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…3999backed paiN Gaming | 54c | 139.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed paiN Gaming | 25c | 123.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…2923backed OG | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed paiN Gaming | 33c | 121.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…4be9backed paiN Gaming | 15c | 114.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed OG | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…5379backed OG | 67c | 111.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked paiN Gaming | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed OG | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…9474backed OG | 78c | 99.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed paiN Gaming | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed paiN Gaming | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…7807backed OG | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed OG | 62c | 84.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed OG | 65c | 78.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…b958backed paiN Gaming | 41c | 78.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed paiN Gaming | 47c | 76.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed OG | 34c | 76.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed paiN Gaming | 24c | 67.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed paiN Gaming | 38c | 60.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked paiN Gaming | 44c | 56.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked paiN Gaming | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed paiN Gaming | 43c | 50.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked paiN Gaming | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed paiN Gaming | 42c | 48.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked paiN Gaming | 34c | 44.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcadb…a190backed OG | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed OG | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed OG | 41c | 39.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…52fabacked paiN Gaming | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed paiN Gaming | 35c | 31.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed OG | 55c | 30.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…daf0backed paiN Gaming | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…e141backed OG | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d5…68d7backed OG | 54c | 19.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 WinnerpaiN Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.