Movies · resolved market
"The Fantastic Four: First Steps" Rotten Tomatoes score 90+%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9a1790214e689357ff840cd9d68cb4932d105e7aab93c0bf5997a6e366d582d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,784$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a52…c45cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,555$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 9c | 1,946$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.52 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…8697backed Yes | 25c | 1,667$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,257$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…22ccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,139$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 3c | 712$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 75c | 555$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.75 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe265…9e7fbacked Yes | 4c | 550.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…ed39backed Yes | 7c | 435.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 5c | 409.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 8c | 331.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…8530backed Yes | 11c | 311.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 153.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 22c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…84cdbacked Yes | 10c | 129.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 10c | 127.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…b46cbacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…3a52backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecc…3739backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" Rotten Tomatoes score 90+%?this page
- "Fantastic 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is below 80%?No won
- "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80–89%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.