Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9d2b56ba5bbeaf0a6deba6dac9fafa3525175b4fa4d0770874c266134efa93a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 2,362$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 4c | 857.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 517.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 351.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 11c | 331.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…1c8fbacked No | 73c | 229.79$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 215.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 11c | 208$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 180.87$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 35c | 164.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…5b16backed Yes | 9c | 158.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 150.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 39c | 77.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 35c | 72.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 37c | 66.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed Yes | 34c | 32.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.