Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c6e2a8f8611317a3eb477da40f49be4ef6ced2424488380d087b1de9ff908b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 45c | 958.61$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.16 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 3c | 563$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 40c | 443.78$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.96 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 426.77$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 423.64$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 336.7$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 331.56$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 55c | 319.15$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.75 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 317.52$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 305$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 300.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 275.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.04 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 53c | 227.53$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 18c | 219.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 214$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 27c | 205.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.85 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…3307backed Yes | 48c | 202.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 177.1$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.04 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 57c | 175.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 47c | 175$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 67c | 150.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 146.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 68c | 143.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 140.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 139.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 139.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 132.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 131.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 121.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 48c | 118.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 111$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 28c | 108.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 103.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 49c | 92.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 91.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 87.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 82.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 17c | 76.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 75.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 74.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 35c | 72.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 44c | 69.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 66.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 53c | 65.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 63.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 20c | 58.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 57.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…a69abacked Yes | 41c | 54.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 53.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 60c | 53.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 49.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 52c | 48.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 66c | 47.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 47.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked No | 63c | 46.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 34c | 46.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 44.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 28c | 44.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 43.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 49c | 40.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 46c | 40.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 48c | 39.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 47c | 39.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 39.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 38.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 73c | 38.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 37.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 29c | 37.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 37.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 34c | 37.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 50c | 36.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 56c | 33.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 51c | 32.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 38c | 31.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 71c | 31.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 50c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 48c | 29.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Yes | 47c | 28.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 27.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 40c | 26.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 74c | 25.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 57c | 25.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 68c | 25.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.