Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3c2bc230d51d5bb9f5ae9a9238a85c0440b96976715a3a222b54703c44ad01d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 47c | 3,455$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.96 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 46c | 950$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.5 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 842.25$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.19 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 722.33$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 39c | 535.08$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 409.56$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.27 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 371.3$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 43c | 300$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 289.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 264$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 42c | 254.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.91 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 251.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.81 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 247.17$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.78 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 234.83$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 226$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 40c | 218$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 213.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 206.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 43c | 203.23$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…9bfbbacked Yes | 34c | 201.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 62c | 200.8$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 199.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 43c | 198.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.17 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 51c | 198.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.47 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 184.64$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 79c | 181.97$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 40c | 180$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 69c | 176.07$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 40c | 175$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 167.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 37c | 159.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.61 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed No | 39c | 129.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 129.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 42c | 127.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 125.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 39c | 122.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 42c | 121.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 118.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 57c | 103.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 56c | 89.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 55c | 88.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 88.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 40c | 87.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 60c | 86.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 86.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 83.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 44c | 77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed Yes | 73c | 67.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 62c | 66.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7666…1ecfbacked Yes | 68c | 66.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 47c | 63.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 17c | 62.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 59.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 31c | 59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 36c | 58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 46c | 57.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 32c | 57.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa0…afdfbacked No | 58c | 49.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 53c | 49.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 53c | 49.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 54c | 48.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 47.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 28c | 44.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 50c | 43.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 31c | 43.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 40.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…5a80backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 58c | 37.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked No | 55c | 37.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…27ddbacked No | 47c | 34.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 33c | 33.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed No | 63c | 33.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed No | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 31c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebd…f8afbacked No | 70c | 32.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.