Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9d82ec1c3ba60f59cdd9de96a436e040aa432dad549629e342b6b7721a2e3d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 62c | 760.09$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 54c | 442.32$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.36 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 50c | 323.69$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.2 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 259.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 221.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 158.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 6c | 157.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 151.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 134.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 119.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 46c | 112.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 51c | 103.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 91.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 81.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 60c | 76.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 36c | 73.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 39c | 71.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 75c | 48.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 36.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 55c | 34.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 54c | 32.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 60c | 32.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 31.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 48c | 31.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7910…8969backed Yes | 64c | 31.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 29.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 74c | 27.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 26.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 40c | 26.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 42c | 25.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 21.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 49c | 21.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 61c | 20.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 59c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 79c | 17.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.