Tennis · resolved market
Guangzhou Open: Lulu Sun vs Claire Liu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9deca5aa03155b88806ebfd2178bf8177a8e9dc0b85e2c43c6672a0af171e57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunof Sun, Liu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x620b…d4adbacked Liu | 22c | 16,167$3,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,621.74 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Liu | 0c | 4,650$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c5…f211backed Liu | 16c | 3,646$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Sun | 70c | 2,950$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sun | 70c | 1,408$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.62 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Liu | 26c | 1,400$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.02 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce3…3bc3backed Sun | 74c | 1,205$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.37 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Liu | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd891…7341backed Sun | 73c | 205.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 121 | 61.2%74 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Sun | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Sun | 68c | 184.63$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…cbe5backed Liu | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe030…8d5fbacked Liu | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…9868backed Sun | 72c | 89.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…d3debacked Liu | 14c | 87.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Liu | 14c | 74.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Liu | 29c | 57.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Sun | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Liu | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sun | 71c | 46.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Sun | 72c | 37.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…b276backed Liu | 32c | 34.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc855…26ffbacked Sun | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.