Tennis · resolved market
French Open: Fonseca vs. Draper
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9e52baf6593d499b1408ed20a55e363e2096e463b374921079d1fc21cab46f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Draperof Fonseca, Draper
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0425…65d0backed Draper | 66c | 3,891$2,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Fonseca | 31c | 3,002$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.17 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Fonseca | 33c | 2,936$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.83 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Fonseca | 35c | 1,433$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 111 | 23.4%26 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Fonseca | 34c | 1,368$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.91 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Draper | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Draper | 65c | 969.87$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.85 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Fonseca | 29c | 779.68$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.11 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…4036backed Draper | 79c | 755.87$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.87 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Draper | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fonseca | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…5be5backed Fonseca | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Fonseca | 35c | 347.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Fonseca | 7c | 305.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fonseca | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fonseca | 36c | 276.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Draper | 68c | 210.87$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Draper | 72c | 170.92$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Draper | 66c | 153$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Draper | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Draper | 70c | 130.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Draper | 71c | 124.41$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Fonseca | 11c | 98.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dab…9a14backed Draper | 70c | 81.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…3cf7backed Fonseca | 35c | 78.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Fonseca | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Draper | 63c | 61.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Draper | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…6215backed Draper | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Fonseca | 30c | 58.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Fonseca | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…1d6bbacked Draper | 65c | 30.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…e56bbacked Draper | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.