Tennis · resolved market
Wuhan Tennis Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Jessica Pegula
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9fb21fe7bf17c1d37ff391dbd6f765d0194fe660b34fb67d8a88601bd131782
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Baptiste, Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baptiste | 23c | 6,475$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.85 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Pegula | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Baptiste | 30c | 1,285$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.49 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Baptiste | 15c | 1,247$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.19 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Pegula | 79c | 1,159$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.89 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Baptiste | 28c | 1,026$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.51 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Baptiste | 33c | 864.91$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.27 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Baptiste | 14c | 555$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Pegula | 71c | 501$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.8 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Baptiste | 49c | 339.1$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Baptiste | 23c | 263.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Baptiste | 12c | 201.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Baptiste | 16c | 191.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Baptiste | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Baptiste | 29c | 138.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baptiste | 20c | 119.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225f…5ec6backed Pegula | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…b3a4backed Pegula | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Pegula | 71c | 91.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Baptiste | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Pegula | 59c | 65.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Pegula | 55c | 52.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Baptiste | 23c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Pegula | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Baptiste | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Pegula | 77c | 32.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.