NFL · resolved market
Spread: BUF (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba1a7e4c36d35f9f1beacf587b535c2aea448fb05e2021b6ea59d490e2771697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MIAof BUF, MIA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked MIA | 51c | 39,827$20,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,517.45 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked BUF | 49c | 35,567$17,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,427.85 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…a671backed BUF | 49c | 2,040$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed BUF | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked BUF | 48c | 1,773$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.04 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked MIA | 52c | 1,765$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.34 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked MIA | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfe…4341backed BUF | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked BUF | 48c | 192$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed BUF | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BUF (-11.5)this page
- Dolphins vs. BillsBills won
- MIA vs. BUF: O/U 50.5Over won
- MIA vs. BUF: O/U 51.5Over won
- MIA vs. BUF: O/U 54.5Under won
- MIA vs. BUF: O/U 59.5Under won
- Spread: BUF (-10.5)MIA won
- Spread: BUF (-13.5)MIA won
- Spread: BUF (-14.5)MIA won
- Spread: BUF (-15.5)MIA won
- Spread: BUF (-17.5)MIA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.