NFL · resolved market
MIA vs. BUF: O/U 51.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4da5d4e87198cd90382211092a04e49f59c7e071146328c8a2735bff6f969684
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68df…4815backed Under | 54c | 31,667$17,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,250.33 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Over | 52c | 19,057$9,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,091.35 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 45c | 17,245$7,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,507.45 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 41c | 13,532$5,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,486.68 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 55c | 4,929$2,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,722.89 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…2e41backed Under | 56c | 4,496$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Over | 45c | 3,314$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.61 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.99 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…dedfbacked Over | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.91 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 1,192$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.14 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Under | 56c | 891.07$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 45c | 643$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.65 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 46c | 574$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.96 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 55c | 493$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.15 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 45c | 469.93$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.46 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked Over | 46c | 334.1$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.65 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Over | 54c | 307.09$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.26 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c3…3242backed Over | 45c | 277.78$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.78 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Over | 44c | 245$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Over | 53c | 239.55$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Under | 13c | 209.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Over | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Over | 46c | 117.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 45c | 115$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…8facbacked Over | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 39c | 107.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Over | 58c | 102.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9017…9173backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Under | 56c | 86.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a64…795ebacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Over | 46c | 78.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…47d8backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3d…d40cbacked Under | 51c | 43.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…203ebacked Under | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb9…1649backed Over | 46c | 43.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0e39backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…ab08backed Under | 57c | 36.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…0d88backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Under | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…6f5cbacked Under | 72c | 14.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MIA vs. BUF: O/U 51.5this page
- Dolphins vs. BillsBills won
- MIA vs. BUF: O/U 50.5Over won
- MIA vs. BUF: O/U 54.5Under won
- MIA vs. BUF: O/U 59.5Under won
- Spread: BUF (-10.5)MIA won
- Spread: BUF (-11.5)MIA won
- Spread: BUF (-13.5)MIA won
- Spread: BUF (-14.5)MIA won
- Spread: BUF (-15.5)MIA won
- Spread: BUF (-17.5)MIA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.