Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba50202bb88bdc0c6b28dd4195d88e95b5f9f26945fc8fc3b4783d664c9ecdb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 3c | 1,140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 315.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 181.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…6a0fbacked Yes | 25c | 172.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 153.62$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 140.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 106.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 19c | 82.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb6…d7d8backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 68c | 44.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 71c | 44.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e6…319dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 80c | 39.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 32.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 31.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 37c | 31.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.