Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8836b5154562aba2945fe64bb5305165896b20afb7b930406ec54f30acf44f90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 631.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 45c | 454.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.85 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 32c | 301.22$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 250.06$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 165.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 64c | 147.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 55c | 139.41$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 39c | 129$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 38c | 104.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 97.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 97.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…6a0fbacked Yes | 37c | 96.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 91.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 39c | 91.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 77.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 70c | 71.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 67.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 33c | 60.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 57.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked No | 61c | 53.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes | 52c | 50.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 36c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 63c | 38.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 32.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 37c | 30.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 75c | 28.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 68c | 25.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 23.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 62c | 20.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed No | 67c | 18.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…5e0bbacked No | 73c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 68c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 72c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 77c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.