Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba95b9757b5944101ed1e791014c71e1d32cfa4d429705fb9a492d88d19a314b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 30c | 840.88$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.35 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 56c | 441.5$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.72 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 43c | 392.44$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.44 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 241.2$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 37c | 182.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.45 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 162.49$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 136.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 131$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 32c | 127$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 114.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 108.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 48c | 82.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 79.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 77.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed Yes | 70c | 75.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 48c | 61.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 77c | 54.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 53.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 33c | 46.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 45.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 32c | 44.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 43.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 40.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 30c | 38.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 51c | 37.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 42c | 36.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 53c | 36.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 64c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 29.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 52c | 27.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 70c | 26.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 25.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed No | 73c | 24.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 74c | 22.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 66c | 17.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…0020backed Yes | 62c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 67°F or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.