TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Asian League · resolved market

Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,325
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,315

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,325 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Asian League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb0b…3790backed Under1c3,666$37 inLost-$36.666634.8%23 W · 43 L+13.5wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+156.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x5c5f…5449backed Under1c3,440$34 inLost-$34.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over30c1,288$381 inWon+$907.142,49140%997 W · 1,494 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over15c1,074$166 inWon+$908.1782842.4%351 W · 477 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under46c633.2$291 inLost-$291.279268.5%63 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over16c486.69$78 inWon+$408.8269352.2%362 W · 331 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over9c344$31 inWon+$313.0417041.8%71 W · 99 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under45c327.12$148 inLost-$148.435,94646.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b84…6e9bbacked Over55c181.82$100 inWon+$81.821471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over62c161.29$100 inWon+$61.2933452.7%176 W · 158 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Over17c150$26 inWon+$124.53432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3d0…2fefbacked Under36c137$50 inLost-$502369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under48c114.47$55 inLost-$55.441,35645.5%617 W · 739 L+15.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf4…40fabacked Over58c100$58 inWon+$423548.6%17 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.