Asian League · resolved market
Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5d2bc0ddf72366d7faf59c89960e84b3e51b85acd826e5615b67e46ae655532
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 40c | 13,815$5,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,486.35 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 59c | 3,397$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.57 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 3,093$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.78 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 2,969$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.93 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 53c | 2,295$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.54 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 42c | 1,332$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.55 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 62c | 1,084$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.73 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 80c | 690.85$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.81 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 20c | 528.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.94 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 31c | 429.65$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.46 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 60c | 359.9$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 70cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 14c | 220.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.29 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 56c | 219.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 57c | 182.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 63c | 181.2$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe4…70c1backed Over | 41c | 180$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 57c | 170$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 17c | 137$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.71 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…6f2abacked Over | 15c | 130$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 21c | 125.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.21 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…e303backed Over | 18c | 94.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 73.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 68c | 66.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…2fefbacked Over | 59c | 60.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 68c | 57.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 30c | 51.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 46c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…f43dbacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 30c | 40.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 69c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2906…555abacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 62c | 17.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5this page
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Kashima Antlers O/U 2.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)Kashima Antlers won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.