Asian League · resolved market
Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94cdc560ecf3f65594f6a1b19acd5509845922ee1da4577cf3f88b6096377c21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 67c | 4,762$3,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.43 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 33c | 4,082$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.18 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 3,572$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.72 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 34c | 3,566$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.55 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 71c | 2,377$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.93 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Under | 36c | 2,295$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 68c | 2,214$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.6 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…6674backed Over | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 64c | 1,531$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.33 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 33c | 1,514$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.62 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 34c | 1,456$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Under | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 60c | 499.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5180…9cf1backed Over | 67c | 328.36$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…0171backed Over | 67c | 292.91$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 33c | 248.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 33c | 171.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 32c | 157.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…245ebacked Over | 65c | 154.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.28per pick | 51cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…6ca8backed Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 32c | 138$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 33c | 100.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…d0abbacked Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35a2…787dbacked Under | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 33c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…e303backed Over | 65c | 50.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…6f2abacked Over | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 66c | 46.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 63c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 34c | 41.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 30c | 37.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 32c | 34.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Over | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe30f…ab88backed Over | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361b…74febacked Under | 34c | 31.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 50cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 64c | 29.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Over | 63c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5this page
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Kashima Antlers O/U 2.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)Kashima Antlers won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.