TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Flames

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Flames
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,203 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3168…6734backed Flames23c3,036$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.225149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Lightning76c2,092$1,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.6644848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b6e…8b9cbacked Flames42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Flames16c1,237$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.3535545.4%161 W · 194 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Lightning61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.015534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-21.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f39…adcfbacked Lightning58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Flames20c948.97$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.791,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Lightning80c948.97$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.794436.4%16 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Flames40c807.53$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.011,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Flames2c806.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.357450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1875…eb5ebacked Lightning44c562.43$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.96955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x188c…3d31backed Lightning58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Flames14c412.12$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0631334.8%109 W · 204 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Flames41c376$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1654349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ad…f186backed Lightning59c254.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2413562.2%84 W · 51 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Flames41c250.35$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6572444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Flames41c245$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.45728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Lightning58c241.38$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.381,07954.3%586 W · 493 L+4.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Flames40c231.87$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7531849.4%157 W · 161 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Flames42c214.76$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.546137.7%23 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cb4…3b72backed Lightning59c213.38$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.49862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc54…aad2backed Flames41c213.38$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c91…0505backed Lightning60c201.23$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.237650%38 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0328…28fabacked Flames23c185.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.66742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Flames6c178.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ce…35f0backed Lightning59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.492369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Lightning60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6722246.8%104 W · 118 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0835…c0abbacked Lightning60c166.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.468248.8%40 W · 42 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Lightning59c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.51,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Flames41c148.91$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0519150.8%97 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed Flames45c146.14$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666657.6%38 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Flames23c108.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257317.8%13 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab95…61a1backed Lightning59c101.76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.777248.6%35 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Flames40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4023144.6%103 W · 128 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26af…a178backed Flames40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Flames42c99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5881846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf05…aa64backed Flames41c59.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.62941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6144…2fffbacked Lightning59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.54452.3%23 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x479f…bb7dbacked Lightning60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54dc…776ebacked Flames42c46.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a04…9331backed Lightning58c46.53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.54450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ee…743fbacked Lightning57c45.38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.42450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf338…a99fbacked Flames34c43.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d07…555cbacked Flames42c41.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.57650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc19f…e7ecbacked Lightning57c40.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.463100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9576…ce79backed Flames41c40.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.56633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c5b…26b0backed Flames42c39.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4e5…62debacked Lightning59c39.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.33650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xded9…1437backed Lightning59c38.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e9…7c09backed Lightning59c37.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.36540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb632…99e8backed Flames41c37.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-44.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc315…2fb0backed Flames42c36.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9e…465bbacked Lightning58c36.79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.45520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a71…2919backed Flames41c36.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-59.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b9…a59fbacked Flames41c35.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5850%0 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x55c6…d8d3backed Flames41c34.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-43.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e0b…460bbacked Lightning59c34.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d7…e18ebacked Lightning58c33.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a0…875bbacked Flames42c33.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb1…2a78backed Lightning53c33.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-43.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a4f…eff3backed Flames42c32.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.59540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8676…e6abbacked Flames41c31.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+74.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79de…b86bbacked Lightning59c31.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f5…b323backed Lightning58c31.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.284100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+85.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f01…8ebabacked Lightning59c31.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.93771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+36.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Lightning43c29.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.191,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xece0…2b56backed Flames47c28.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d4…b04dbacked Lightning58c27.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.59944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6102…b7f9backed Lightning56c27.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3661…611bbacked Lightning59c26.85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.013100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f25…4347backed Flames41c25.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fb8…3ec7backed Lightning59c25.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74a1…7d64backed Flames43c25.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc224…cd43backed Lightning59c25.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4219057.9%110 W · 80 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95c8…9143backed Lightning60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21a2…866dbacked Lightning60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109260.9%56 W · 36 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Flames44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1172448.3%350 W · 374 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c79…2793backed Lightning53c24.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53f2…1d15backed Flames47c24.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Lightning54c24.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1591334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcdc…52cebacked Lightning58c24.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.15580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+41.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3d7…3ccfbacked Flames42c24.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe046…fbf3backed Lightning59c24.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.884100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+92.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Lightning59c24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8424457.4%140 W · 104 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc02e…20e1backed Lightning58c23.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.03862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2505…a4f7backed Lightning59c23.07$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.465046%23 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e9…8decbacked Lightning59c21.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.69757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc341…f116backed Lightning61c20.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Lightning60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85453.7%29 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5708…4c79backed Lightning52c19.62$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.42580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+70.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9873…352dbacked Lightning53c19.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.076100%6 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+105.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xec73…85e4backed Lightning58c18.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.87425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa91a…0ea8backed Lightning58c18.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.66450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa554…15c5backed Lightning57c18.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8346…a616backed Lightning59c17.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.33580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc886…dfafbacked Lightning59c17.33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb310…877cbacked Lightning60c17.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.