College Football · resolved market
Spread: South Florida (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbae1fcd618eb23aceaa1c5a5cbe9f2661ddcbcf21e6e466cfc6b19aeabc48e5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South Floridaof South Florida, UTSA Roadrunners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UTSA Roadrunners | 54c | 9,697$5,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,236.21 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked South Florida | 47c | 6,784$3,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,619.16 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked South Florida | 46c | 5,052$2,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,730.61 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed UTSA Roadrunners | 53c | 3,105$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.66 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked South Florida | 46c | 2,601$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.5 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 55c | 730$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.5 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed UTSA Roadrunners | 54c | 655.94$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.21 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked South Florida | 45c | 325.37$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.96 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed UTSA Roadrunners | 54c | 210$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked South Florida | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed UTSA Roadrunners | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 55c | 124.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed UTSA Roadrunners | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed UTSA Roadrunners | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 53c | 32.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: South Florida (-14.5)this page
- O/U 68.5Over won
- Spread: South Florida (-13.5)South Florida won
- UTSA Roadrunners vs. South FloridaSouth Florida won
- UTSA Roadrunners vs. South Florida: O/U 67.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.