College Football · resolved market
UTSA Roadrunners vs. South Florida: O/U 67.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5b58c3ef09521345c39bc41e2b1aea85ab9d2d3e9cbf48df8357db4c3329415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 6,630$3,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,365.08 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 4,177$2,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,172.14 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Over | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.84 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 49c | 3,500$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 53c | 2,822$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.66 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 48c | 2,209$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.82 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 2,096$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.9 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 49c | 1,700$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,365$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.02 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Over | 48c | 158.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UTSA Roadrunners vs. South Florida: O/U 67.5this page
- O/U 68.5Over won
- Spread: South Florida (-13.5)South Florida won
- Spread: South Florida (-14.5)South Florida won
- UTSA Roadrunners vs. South FloridaSouth Florida won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.