Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaea1cf4c53ff0d3414934026d3226898f17037c9d67833ced70884bfd3f16cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 62c | 40,000$24,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,213.04 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 22,559$8,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,572.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Yes | 38c | 7,000$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,660 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 37c | 3,171$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.26 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 38c | 2,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 8c | 2,355$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 23c | 2,259$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.88 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 38c | 1,510$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.03 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x560e…4bacbacked Yes | 39c | 1,290$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f0…60dabacked No | 64c | 1,004$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 6c | 599.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 59c | 287.8$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Yes | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 60c | 241.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 38c | 221.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9920…8f8ebacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 38c | 102$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…345abacked Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…395abacked Yes | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 79c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 58c | 59.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…96bebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5751…cb3abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…d4c5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e7…4dc9backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…9b2abacked Yes | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 38c | 40.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…e68ebacked Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…e772backed Yes | 39c | 29.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83b…4236backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…f8b6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 54c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 60c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked No | 62c | 18.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-20?Yes won
- Will Werder Bremen vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.